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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the other's arguments."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."